Full Tilt Payout Chances Are Shrinking

Since I have (had?) a significant bankroll on Full Jilt, I've been trying my best to keep up with what's going on in the bizarro world of Howard Lederer and friends. Pauly linked a couple of articles worth reading, which I have done also. After reading both, I'm lowering my outlook on a Full Tilt payout to 35%.      >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

"Show me the money!"

F-Train in his missive titled "About That River in Egypt" writes,

I know that, for a lot of people, people with significantly more money tied up online than my paltry $1,142, the idea that Tilt is never coming back is a bitter pill to swallow. But if you ignore the elephant in the room, don't be surprised when he tramples you.

Kim at Infinite Edge adds in his article, "Full Tilt' Poker's Last Out,"

Full Tilt Poker’s problem is not paying the players they owe money. Their problem is doing so while also remaining competitive afterwards. If Bitar and Co give up on this pursuit and exercise their last out, players will get paid, and there will be enough left over for some lawyers and some “Russ Hamilton, no longer the most hated man in poker” t-shirts.

I'm just not feeling good about Full Jilt coming thru with the payola. Thirty-five percent chance and dropping in my opinion.  What do you think? Too high? Too low?

I guess we will find out over the next few weeks and months.